Never listen to the odds

The first entry was supposed to be on another subject, but I was looking for a title for the blog and found this video, titled Why you can’t get a date (and here’s the math). All right, now my blog has a name!

On topic: evolutionary psychologist Satoshi Kanazawa explains the phenomena of why people can’t get a decent date, even when they live in a city as big as New York. His conclusion is straightforward: You should just throw away your first number of dates, equivalent of 37% of your city’s population, before you start looking seriously for a boy- or girlfriend. In New York City (a population of 8m), one would have to burn through about 1,482,000 dates (assuming you’re really open minded about womens’ age) before you will meet your ideal woman.

I hope you don’t need me to explain how absurd this is. No, this is not going to be a criticism of statistics and their abuse (damned lies and all that). No, it’s not impossible for any given New Yorker to find a decent date before they reach their 1,482,000th. No, I don’t think you should marry your 925,001st date (of if you live in New York, your 1,482,001st.)

The video is a jibe at how we often use statistics to tell ourselves that life is hard, and our goals are impossible. Like all things in the world, statistics are not bad in and of themselves–it’s the interpretation that’s crucial. Unfortunately, most people want evidence of why their failures are not their fault, and they find it in the numbers.

There’s only two meaningful ways to look at these statistics, I think. One: Your dream girl is probably not the next one you meet, or the one after that. If you’ve a bad date, get over it. Two: It’s going to take effort. And your effort has nothing to do with odds.